☕️ Bear float

Good morning.

Nine months after pulling a circa $100 million IPO on US-China trade noise, Koala founder Dany Milham is back on the IPO trail at a valuation of around $305 million, well off the top of his original $300-$450 million range.

What's on the cards this time around? A market rattled by AI doom, oil shocks and a local IPO pipeline that's effectively frozen. A confident Milham tells Capital Brief's Hugo Mathers his investors "weren't really fazed."

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in gold miner Northern Star Resources plunged on Friday after the company slashed its full-year production guidance for the second time this financial year, warning investors that even hitting the bottom end of its revised 2025-26 target would be challenging.

The quick sync

• The Iran conflict is exposing Australia's dependence on imported fuel and fertiliser, and UNSW researchers say a faster green transition is the fix, writes Sven Rogge. (Capital Brief)

• Whether Atlassian can rebuild the culture that once made it a global benchmark as it simultaneously bets the company on AI is now an open question. (Capital Brief)

• Whether the RBA hikes rates on Tuesday or holds amid Middle East uncertainty is, by most accounts, still not a done deal. (Capital Brief)

• If a company like Atlassian can find itself on the wrong side of the AI-driven disruption, nobody is safe. (Capital Brief)

• A real fuel shortage plus a combative energy minister handed the Coalition its best week in months. (Capital Brief)

• The fight over AI copyright is really a fight over whether democracy can afford to lose its information ecosystem, writes Eric Knight. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Bain Capital will buy Perpetual Wealth for $550m. (AFR)

• A non-property buyer leads the bid to acquire Peet, valued at $865m. (The Australian)

• Future Fund considers a stake in Victoria’s $4b land registry sale. (AFR)

• ANZ plans to acquire Worldline’s stake in their $925m payments joint venture. (The Australian)

• BHP’s Nickel West may be acquired by a private equity group led by Andrew Forrest. (The Australian)

Capital Markets

• Tesla can convert its xAI investment into a small stake in SpaceX before its IPO. (Capital Brief)

• JPMorgan completed a block trade of Lifestyle Communities shares for Hometown America. (AFR)

• Qantas will pay $105m to settle a lawsuit over Covid flight credits. (Capital Brief)

• MGA Thermal secured $17m to accelerate renewable energy storage expansion. (Capital Brief)

• Jackie Henderson sues ARN Media over alleged wrongful termination. (AFR)

• AI copyright debates in Australia question whether the country will protect its information ecosystem and democracy. (Capital Brief)

• KMD Brands taps Goldman Sachs to manage its major recapitalisation. (AFR)

• Electro Optic Systems won $64m in counter-drone system orders from U.S. and Middle East clients. (Capital Brief)

• L1 Capital targets $1b for its new gold LIC, with founders investing $100m. (AFR)

• Fuel shortages and high prices are increasing political pressure on the Australian government. (Capital Brief)

• Queensland will receive the biggest GST increase in 2026–27 under recommendations by the Commonwealth Grants Commission. (Capital Brief)

• HotCopper deletes posts following legal action by Duncan Craib. (AFR)

• Koala targets a $68m ASX IPO on 31 March. (Capital Brief) (Capital Brief)

• US oil companies may earn $86b this year as oil prices soar after the Iran war. (AFR)

• ACCC demands talks with petrol companies over sudden fuel price rises. (Capital Brief)

• Atlassian layoffs underline AI’s impact as Australia plans stricter tech regulation. (Capital Brief) (Capital Brief)

• WhiteHawk Capital considers lending $400m to Star Entertainment. (AFR)

• Meta planning sweeping layoffs as AI costs mount. (Reuters)

• ‘Fake workers’ from North Korea use AI to exploit European companies. (FT)

VC 

• Cortical Labs debuts a neuron-powered biological data centre that it says uses much less energy than conventional data centres. (Capital Brief)

• WinDC seeks $176m in Series A funding for its renewable data centres. (AFR)

People moves

• Kerry Stokes exits the board of the merged Seven West Media–Southern Cross Austereo after 30 years. (AFR)

• Antony Catalano resigns from Australian Community Media following assault charges and abuse allegations. (AFR)

• Matthew Grounds tours Asia with Barrenjoey clients and ASX-listed executives. (AFR)

• Peter Thiel's secretive Rome conference draws Church attention. (Reuters)

The watercooler