☕️ Election economics

Good morning.

Amid a flurry of earnings reports, the first of three key economic indicators ahead of Tuesday’s US election and the next potential Fed rate cut landed overnight, with Q3 GDP rising 2.8%. Just under the 3% forecast, growth got a solid lift from consumer spending strength and capital investment, plus a defence bump. Tomorrow, we’ll see the Fed’s go-to inflation metric for September, and Friday (our Saturday) brings the latest on jobs and wages.

The data is sure to influence the Fed, but will it influence US voters? We’re not so sure.

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Woolworths didn’t quite bag the earnings shoppers expected, as it snuck out a downgrade that shaved a cool 6% off its share price. With cost-of-living woes pushing up price tags, investors seem less than thrilled with Woolworths' slimmer prospects for the first half of FY25.

The quick sync

• Google privately says it 'overpaid' Australian news publishers, fuelling doubts on future content deals. (Capital Brief)

• KKR and Capital Group launch two hybrid funds for US investors, blending public and private credit to tap into growing demand. (Bloomberg)

• Australian fusion startup HB11 targets profitability ahead of nuclear fusion's mainstream debut, as Big Tech bets on nuclear to fuel the AI boom. (Capital Brief)

• QR code payments, popular in China and India, have reached Australia, but face significant challenges to widespread adoption. (Capital Brief)

• John Wylie to vote against Lendlease pay report in push for board changes. (AFR)

• How Arm could be the unexpected winner of the AI investment boom (FT)

• Billionaire John Paulson, a potential Trump Treasury pick, vows to collaborate with Elon Musk on sweeping federal spending cuts. (WSJ)

Trading floor

M&A

• Whitehaven Coal is preparing to bid for the $3bn Kestrel coal mine while skipping the $4.5bn Anglo American coal sale. (The Australian)

• Southern Cross Austereo reported a revenue boost and is advancing the sale of regional TV assets to pay down debt amidst an ad market slump. (Capital Brief)

• EMR Capital plans to hire an adviser to consider options for its 45% stake in 29Metals, which has underperformed in public markets despite strong investment results. (The Australian)

• Private equity has acquired Brisbane software company MEX for over $100m, advised by RBC Capital Markets. (AFR)

• Syrah Resources gains US loan for its Mozambique graphite project, lifting shares and supporting US-Africa development goals. (Capital Brief)

• Flight Centre acquires Cruise Club UK to boost growth in the UK leisure market. (Capital Brief)

• As Chris Ellison faces scrutiny at Mineral Resources, talks of a breakup arise, with speculation that Wesfarmers could acquire some of its assets, despite a full buyout being unlikely. (The Australian)

• Alignment Growth Management has acquired a stake in Melbourne's PMY Group, which specializes in technology for live sports and entertainment. (BNA)

Capital Markets

• Bowen Coking Coal struggles to raise $70m as its shares remain suspended, with the settlement date for its shortfall offer extended to November 4. (The Australian)

• Epiminder, a Melbourne medtech firm backed by Cochlear, aims for a $200m valuation in a pre-IPO raise as it nears FDA approval for its seizure-detecting device, set to launch in the US by 2027. (AFR)

• Barings has launched its first Australia-focused private credit fund, securing $230m and having over $690m for senior lending. (AFR)

• The ASX 200 dropped 0.83% as supermarket stocks fell over cost-of-living impact concerns. (Capital Brief)

• Burrendong Minerals seeks to raise $5m for a December IPO on the ASX, despite a slowdown in larger IPOs. (AFR)

• Pilbara Minerals cuts production guidance and delays projects, causing a 1.1% share drop amid tough market conditions. (Capital Brief)

• Capricorn Metals pauses ASX trading before releasing major capital raising results. (Capital Brief)

• Red Metal's share plan attracted $6.6m in applications, surpassing its $2m target, fully funding its exploration efforts for the year. (SMH)

VC

• EQT has led a $45m funding round for Australian AI startup Neara, which creates digital replicas of critical infrastructure for power companies. (AFR)

• Fusion startup HB11 Energy is raising significant funding to scale its technology, with Big Tech interest spurred by demand for sustainable energy for AI. (Capital Brief)

• WaveX is seeking $3.5m to fund a prototype of its wave energy technology off Albany, attracting government interest. (AFR)

• Juliet Kirby launched Gentoo.earth, an AI platform for carbon removal companies, in Sydney and has moved to San Francisco to scale it internationally. (Smart Company)

• ELumina has opened a $20m EV charger factory on the Gold Coast, designed to improve charging infrastructure in regional Australia. (BNA)

People moves

• Cbus is restructuring, resulting in the redundancy of several senior staff, amid concerns over turnover and performance, alarming Morningstar. (AFR)

• ANZ's new executive role aims to unify operations teams for greater efficiency and divisional alignment. (Capital Brief)

• Super Micro Computer's auditor EY resigned over integrity concerns amid delayed filings and revenue overstatement allegations under investigation. (Capital Brief)

The watercooler